PENGEMBANGAN MODEL PERAMALAN HAMA UTAMA PADA TANAMAN JAGUNG DI KABUPATEN PROBOLINGGO, PROPIVINSI JAWA TIMUR

Created on 27 December 2012 Written by Gun Gun Gunawan Category: Berita Utama
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Upaya peningkatan produksi jagung secara kualitas dan kuantitas melalui perluasan areal tanaman dan intensifikasi terus dilakukan, bahkan dalam jangka waktu yang relatif pendek areal pertanaman jagung hibrida yang memiliki keunggulan produksi berkembang dengan pesat. Namun rerata produksi jagung ditingkat petani masih relatif rendah. Hal ini disebabkan oleh serangan Organisme Pengganggu Tumbuhan.

 

Dari kaji terap Model Peramalan Hama Utama pada tanaman jagung periode sebelumnya masih menemukan kendala-kendala, terutama perubahan iklim global saat ini dikhawatirkan akan terjadi perubahan-perubahan jenis serangga hama pada tanaman jagung.

 

Pengembangan Model Peramalan Hama Utama pada tanaman Jagung di laksanakan di Kabupaten Probolionggo, Jawa Timur.   Kegiatan ini dilaksanakan dalam kurun waktu kurang lebih 4 (empat) bulan sejak bulan April sampai dengan Juli 2011.

 

Berdasarkan hasil analisis data pengamatan mingguan di lokasi kegiatan, maka dapat ditarik beberapa kesimpulan :

 

  • Peramalan Populasi Hama Ulat Grayak (Spodoptera   mauritia.), untuk Ramalan Pop. fase Vegetatif ke Generatif dituliskan dengan persamaan

regresi ; Log(Y+1) = 0,0283 + 0,7905 Log(X+1)

Dimana : Y = Populasi Hama Ulat Grayak fase Generatif

                 X = Populasi Hama Ulat Grayak fase Vegetatif

                 R Square = 0,547719.

 

  • Peramalan Populasi Hama Belalang (Locusta Sp.), untuk Ramalan Pop. Belalang fase Vegetatif ke Generatif, dituliskan dengan persamaan

regresi : Log(Y+1) = 0,14811 + 0,81912 Log(X+1)

Dimana : Y = Populasi Hama Belalang fase Generatif

                         X = Populasi Hama Belalang fase Vegetatif

                         R Square = 0,78891.

  • Peramalan Kepadatan Pop. Hama Ulat Grayak (Spodoptera mauritia) fase Vegetatif terhadap Intensitas serangannya pada fase Generatif, dituliskan dengan persamaan :

Log(Y+1) = 0.041143 + 0,788092 Log(X+1)

Dimana : Y = Intensitas Hama Ulat Grayak fase Generatif

                 X = Intensitas Hama Ulat Grayak fase Vegetatif

                 R Square =   0,566314

 

  • Ramalan Kepadatan Pop. Belalang Fase Vegetatif terhadap Intensitas serangannya pada. Fase Generatif , dituliskan dengan persamaan :

Log(Y+1) = 1.0519 + 0.4211 Log(X+1)

Dimana : Y = Intensitas Hama Belalang fase Generatif

                 X = Intensitas Hama Belalang fase Vegetatif

                 R Square = 0.632117

 

 

 

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